Action for the Future..

Lawmakers often overlook groundwater as it is, "out of sight and unfortunately, all too often out of mind.” For example, while international agreements for surface water bodies have been in place since the 1960’s, only recently has a legal framework for TBA’s been looked into. Groundwater is the only missing link in creating an integrated system for the management of transboundary water sources.

With such a large body of water you would assume that there would be a significant agreement for the management and equitable division of the resource between the four states. Maxwell (2011) suggests that enacting “a binding agreement to govern NSAS usage,” was of the upmost importance. Finally, in 2013 progress began to be made in the governance of the NSAS through the Strategic Action Programme (SAP). SAP commits the Nubian states to ensure that, “rational and equitable management,” of the NSAS occurs. Globally only four TBA’s have an interstate agreement, with SAP being one of them, as demand for water continues to grow - ensuring TBA’s have a secure framework is vital if conflicts are to be averted.

Modelling of the NSAS shows that although the transboundary impacts are considered minimal, there are still issues to be wary of. For example, the significant amount of uncertainty about the future of the NSAS is clear in predictions of its longevity, with estimates ranging from a century to a millennium. With so much uncertainty comes unexpected conflicts and problems that could lead to a variety of very different outcomes for the Nubian states and the NSAS. Recognising the NSAS as a ‘common pool’ resource to be governed by a joint cooperation will secure a more stable future for the aquifer. More must be done to build on the momentum created by this primary agreement to set an example for other transboundary aquifers around the world. The NSAS is in a unique position as it is still in its early stages of development and there is the opportunity to, “prevent rather than mitigate resource impairment.” Consequently, it will prove to be an interesting case to watch in the coming years. 

Lessons to be learned from Saudi Arabia...

Although the prognosis for the lifespan of the NSAS is a positive one, there are many reasons for the governments of the Nubian States to take care and not overuse this precious resource found in a now arid desert. Saudi Arabia, although obviously not in Africa, is a country that I found to have one of the most unsustainable water-use policies anywhere in the world. With almost all of their once-plentiful water supplies gone, I could not believe a country could be so misinformed or so greedy that they consume without any consideration for their future. Although it is hard to believe a country could do this, Saudi Arabia followed a very similar path to one that Libya is now going down today. Countries in Africa that rely on aquifers for water need to take head and learn from what happened in Saudi Arabia so as to make sure history does not repeat itself.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, their groundwater supply was considered one of the largest aquifer systems in the world - it contained as much water as Lake Erie in the US.14 Over the years however, the water that had always been so easily found began to dry up. Finding water required  continual digging until drilling over a mile deep was needed. A research paper by Ehadj (2004), stated that in 2004, the Saudi’s ‘fossil water’ was near gone and down to four fifths of what it was originally. "The water reserves that transformed the barren desert into rich irrigated fields, making Saudi Arabia the world’s sixth-largest exporter of wheat," are drying up and an agricultural disaster is fast looming if another source of water can not be found.

There are three reasons why this case study affects the Nubian states and should influence future planning for the NSAS. Firstly, Saudi Arabia's lack of water may cause conflicts with parts of Northern Africa as the Saudis look to find an alternative source of water. The nearest and most obvious supplies of water are from the Nile and from the NSAS, placing further strain on an already depleting and over used water supply. Secondly, as countries look further afield for alternative water supplies the NSAS could become an option for countries all around the world. This could also drastically change its future path while predictions on the longevity of current extraction would be void. Finally, without clear guidelines and quotas for extraction, water is being drained at unprecedented rates for large scale farming and irrigation projects. If governmental intervention and cooperation between Nubian states does not progress, the NSAS could find itself depleted, and following a similar fate to Saudi Arabia’s aquifers. 

Conflict between the Nubian States.

The NSAS currently is not the main source of water for Egypt and Sudan, who rely heavily on the Nile River. In keeping with the government’s current water supply policy, Egyptians have been busy focusing on large scale hydro-engineering along the Nile, especially dam building. However, such policy may change in the future and their attention will likely turn to the NSAS which lies below the ground. Egypt, as the most powerful out of the Nubian states, could increase pressure on relations in an already tense situation over water in the North of Africa.

The volatile political nature of the Nubian states has been commented on in many research papers and has been a source of concern as, ‘few other TBA’s underlie such a politically volatile landscape.’ After the forced removal of Mubarak and the consequential fall of Qaddafi, the states were in a state of widespread turmoil. Political insecurity has also increased the instability of water supplies. For example, on 3 September 2013, the water supply to Libya’s capital, Tripoli, was stopped when the Magraha tribe overtook a pumping station. Those living in the city relied on bottled water for over a week. This situation illustrates just how insecure water supply can be in these countries. In times of political unsteadiness, there is a greater need for an agreement between the states as they each become ‘eager to lay claim to this resource.’

Furthermore, the current conflict in Darfur, Sudan, can be largely attributed to a lack of accessible water. The problem is that Sudan does have water, a lot of it in fact, however, the complete lack of funds and no government water plan has put water out of reach as an economically viable option. Hypothesis that the Egyptian extraction rate will begin to cause the Sudanese water table to lower could mean further water security problems for Sudan. Sudan's section of the NSAS is already the smallest of the Nubian states and the outlook could mean much of their water will be inaccessible within the next 100 years if current pumping rates continue. Chad and Sudan are in a very different economic situation to Egypt and Libya. For example, Chad’s GDP is only 13% of the GDP of Libya. Such a large disparity in their relative economic strengths leave the countries in unequal positions of power when it comes to negotiations. A weaker negotiating position could leave Chad and Sudan open to feeling the negative impacts of intensive extraction in Egypt and Libya.

References 

Alker, M. (2007) The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer - A case study for the research project of transboundary groundwater management in Africa. Halle: The german development institute. 

Schlein, L (2011) ‘Water scarcity root of Darfur conflict’ (WWW) (http://www.voanews.com/ content/water-scarcity-root-of-darfur-conflict-123688459/158292.html; 24 December 2015). 

Voss, C.I. and Soliman, S.M. (2013) The transboundary, non-renewable Nubian Aquifer System of Chad, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. Hydrogeology Journal Vol. 22, 441-468. 

Podrasky, J (2013) ‘The politics of water in Libya and Egypt’ (WWW) (http://muftah.org/the- politics-of-water-in-libya-and-egypt; 24 December 2015). 

Maxwell, N (2011) The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System: Thoughts on a Multilateral Treaty in Light of the 2008 UN Resolution on the Law of Transboundary Aquifers. 

Sass, E (2011) What lies beneath libyas Great man made river - [http://mentalfloss.com/article/27260/what-lies-beneath-libyas-great-manmade-river]

"The eighth wonder of the world"

Libya is one of the most reliant countries in the world on aquifers as they provide its only source of fresh water. Muammar Qaddafi, Prime Minister of Libya (1962-2011), aimed to secure the provision of water for all Libyans by starting the Great Man-Made River Project in the 1980s - it has been described by Libyans as the ‘eighth wonder of the world.’ The project has made Libya a leader in hydro engineering as it supplies over 6,500,000m3 of fresh water per day to the countries major cities. Scientists have, however, warned that it is likely to only be a temporary solution as the aquifer’s supplies are hard to quantify and alternative solutions need to be found for the future. In light of such analysis and considering the many years and vast sum of £20 billion invested in the development of this water project, it will be key to ensure that Libya’s water is used with maximum efficiency.

Figure 3: Relationship between total extraction and projected period of extraction from NSAS

A topic that is often found at the heart of the majority of international water conflicts is that of equitable allocation. This is especially true in countries such as Libya where most of its fresh water is from a shared resource, NSAS. From Figure 3 it is clear that both Libya and Egypt are major extractors. This has raised concerns about whether this is detrimental to Sudan and Chad’s possibilities of extraction. When one country is using a greater proportion of the resource than the other, conflicts can arise.

"Fossil Water"

In my lecture today I was particularly interested in the section regarding the continued use of non-renewable fossil based aquifers as a water source. In areas where water is in such high demand, this precious resource is often used unsustainably and at the cost of future generations. Typically, it is needed to satisfy the need for water in everyday life and for large-scale irrigation and farming projects which contribute to the country’s economic development. ‘Fossil water’ is water that has stayed sealed underground due to changes in the geology of the area. In the past, when the climatic forces were different, the sandstone acted as a sponge and soaked up the torrential rains that fell during ancient storms. Built up over thousands or millions of years, the ‘fossil water’ is now depleting at a rapid rate as a result of extraction. Some even believe it will follow a similar path to fossil fuels, especially in some of the world’s driest regions - it will become just as valuable leading to over-exploitation.

The main focus of this post will be the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) - one of the largest fossil aquifer systems in the world. The Aquifer is found under Libya, Egypt, Sudan and Chad and its extent is believed to be over 2,000,000 km2. It contains around 540,000 km2 of freshwater, 15,340 km2 of which is classified as exploitable. To give an idea of the vast scale of the volume of this fossil water, Sass says in his paper (2011) that the NSAS, ‘holds more freshwater than all the freshwater surface lakes and rivers on earth combined.’ Nonetheless, because water stored in the NSAS is not being replenished, the aquifer is regarded as non-renewable and therefore extraction will undeniably lead to the complete depletion of the source.

Figure 2: Hydro-geological map of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer Systems 

As shown in Figure 2, the NSAS has two major sections; the Nubian Aquifer System is spread across the four states while the other reservoir, called the Post-Nubian Aquifer System, is found under just Egypt and Libya.

So, how much water is being extracted from the NSAS? In Egypt and Libya, well over 40 billion m3 of water has been extracted to date. Evidence that extraction is having an impact can be seen in the fact that, “all but 3%,” of free flowing wells have been replaced with deeper wells as a result of a 60m drawdown that has occurred in the immediate areas surrounding the wells. Forecasts for the extent of drawdown suggest that drawdowns around wells and pumping centres will continue and will eventually ‘coalesce into a NSAS-wide drawdown.’ Voss (2013) argues that the estimated transboundary impacts from drawdown are relatively minimal in the near future, claiming that drawdown will only cross into neighbouring countries around 2060. For example, the East Oweinat development in Egypt will only have a 10m drawdown by 2060. While this is a relatively small depletion suggesting a rather positive outlook for the future of water availability from the NSAS, the development will have in fact crossed into Sudan by this point. This has the potential to create a range of hydropolitical issues as well as the danger of oases and shallow wells disappearing as drawdown continues.

References 

- Hutton, R.E. and Utton, A.E., 1989. Transboundary Groundwaters: The Bellagio Draft Treaty. Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 29, 663–722.
- Voss, C.I. and Soliman, S.M., 2013. The transboundary, non-renewable Nubian Aquifer System of Chad, Egypt, Libya and Sudan. Hydrogeology Journal Vol. 22, 441-468

- National Geographic (2008) "Underground "fossil Water" running out" (WWW) [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100505-fossil-water-radioactive-science-environment/]
-Sass, E (2011) What lies beneath libyas Great man made river - [http://mentalfloss.com/article/27260/what-lies-beneath-libyas-great-manmade-river]

Focusing in...

Groundwater has attracted global attention in recent years as a solution to the world’s freshwater shortage issues. It has been estimated that around 96% of the world’s freshwater is stored as groundwater, while UNESCO have calculated that a total of 273 transboundary aquifers can be found globally.

Africa's groundwater plays a pivotal role in securing freshwater for its inhabitants as it is relied upon by over 75% of the population as a basic supply of water.The map of groundwater resources in Arica is shown in (Figure 1), and illustrates just how vast African groundwater supplies are. With around 40 transboundary aquifer systems in Africa, there are numerous hydropolitical aspects to consider regarding conflicts, governance and the management of the aquifers among the states.

                               

Figure 1: A quantitative map of groundwater resources in Africa.

Scheumann and Alker’s article (2009) on the cooperation of African states regarding shared aquifers questions whether national utilisation patterns of transboundary aquifers have already been having a negative impact on water availability, often resulting in conflicts between states. This is particularly the case when aquifers cross borders. Consequently, the weakening of property rights has become an issue of national importance, especially in areas with scarce water resources.

In the news this week.

On a slightly different topic today when researching current conflicts over water today I found the story of a farmer which i thought provided a rather interesting real life small scale look at hydro-politics, as often we see the topic from a much larger, governance persepective. Conflict in Kiboya in Kenya has been in the news this week as farmers and herders compete for limited supplies of groundwater that is vital for the sustenance of their livelihoods. In the lowland basin of the Laikipia county farmers and herders can find themselves walking over 7 miles to find water in an ever increasing shortage of water sources. Climate Change, which Kenya is very vulnerable to, has made drought and uncertain rains common place.  Herders are finding they have to move upstream and away from their normal grazing lands in search of water, often encroaching on other farmers and herders lands making conflict inevitable. 

Laws and Land rights agreements in the area are important in managing and mitigating conflicts. Up until 2012 pastoralists, communally,  owned the majority of the land however then is was sold of to larger scale ranchers so that now only 50% belonged to smaller scale farmers. Herders and farmers are now all losing out to the larger scale ranches and have a more labour intensive and less profitable occupation since the changes in land rights. 

Solutions to the Problems? 

The Water Resource Management Authority, a government authority, plan to fence and restore dams across the Laikipia county, to reduce pressure on water supplies and make water in the area more sustainable and a year round resource.Simon Mwangi, chair of the Water Resource Users Association said  "The plan will help in conservation of water catchment and regulate water usage." 

Holding meetings where the farmers and pastoralists can meet in a forum where they can speak about the issues they are facing and try to come to a resolution. Conservation agriculture has provided a sustainable solution to the water shortages and hopefully this can be rolled out on a wider scale. Farmers practicing this style of farming were relatively unaffected by droughts and so no longer need to fight over water. 

This is an example of an every day conflict people around the world are facing as demand rises and supply falls for water supplies. Almost every day there is a similar story in the news and this just illustrates how topical and important the discussion about conflicts over water supplies is at the moment. 

Zambezi River Basin - Case Study

In this blog post i will focus solely on the river basin of the Zambezi which supports over 40 million people in many different forms including for tourism, industry, for energy and for drinking water along with many more. The management and protection of this precious source of life is of the upmost importance, It is bought into difficulties however as the river basin is shared between eight countries including Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. these countries do not always share the same views on the best allocation and use of the water source and often find that they have competing interests. 

From Table 1 shown highlighted in red on the table, the countries Malawi and Zimbabwe suffer from increased water stress, defined as per capita water resources being below 1,700m3 per capita. (Falkenmark, 1989) Water stress in Southern Africa is likely to be made worse by climate change in the coming years, as droughts and severe weather makes available water resources ever more unpredictable. These countries have to be increasingly careful with how they manage their supplies and the lack of institutional structures in place for the basin as a whole has hampered these efforts. 

[Table 1. Water resources in the Zambezi Basin. SCHOLES AND BIGGS 2004] 

In 2011 the Zambezi finally gained a governing body called the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZamCom). The hope that this would make the management of the river easier has been hampered by the fact that Zambia, which experiences around half of the rivers flow, has yet to join.  There has been growing unease about this as if Zambia start allocating or withdrawing water in greater volumes, there could be severe consequence for those downstream who rely on the Zambezi for their livelihoods.  

The main worry for the downstream countries is that Zambia will start to make large water transfers, as demand for water rises due to increased water stress in Southern Africa, reducing the flow of the Zambezi downstream. There is an increasing likelihood that Zimbabwe and Mozambique could challenge the “hydrological hegemony” of Zambia that it exerts using its position of an upstream nation to “expand its consumptive water use” often to the detriment of the downstream nations.  (CGIAR, 2015) 

Welcome

“Wars of the future will be fought over water, as they are over oil today.” (Blue Gold: World Water Wars. 2008) 

Over the course of this blog i will use a range of Academic literature, Movies and News articles to help me discuss the topic of the increasing pressure placed on politicians to secure water supplies for their country. Furthermore, the strain this pressure is putting on international relations between countries sharing water supplies. The ability for nations to peacefully resolve conflicts over internationally distributed water resources will increasingly be a factor in stable and secure international relations. It is becoming evermore important, as the water crisis for many increases, to stop propagating threats of “water wars” and aggressively pursue a water peacemaking strategy for equitable water sharing between countries.

This table (Figure 1) shows a number of international basins, that are trans-boundary water supplies, and with how many countries those basins are shared between. In this Blog, I will focus especially on the Zambezi, the Nile and the Congo, all of which run through over nine countries and have complicated hydro-political discussions surrounding them, which i will investigate further. 

(Figure 1)

To introduce my blog to you here is a short video which gives some background on Water Scarcity as it, increasingly, becomes one of the main global problems facing the world today. The UN predicts by 2025, 1800 million people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity. Wasted, Polluted and misallocated water while the worlds population grows at an exponential rate has led to demand exceeding the supply of water in many countries. This increasing demand has led some governments to go to ever greater lengths to secure this precious commodity, even to the point where military control and war is considered.